jump to navigation

What the Sabathia Deal Means to the Phillies July 7, 2008

Posted by Sean in Phillies.tk Archives, Sports (and other things relating to sports).
Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
add a comment

If you haven’t heard, the Milwaukee Brewers traded Matt LaPorta and three minor leaguers to the Indians for LHP Carsten Charles Sabathia (better known as C.C.). The main point of this post is to point out how this deal affects the Phillies, and what the team should do about it.

First off, the Brewers picked up one heck of a pitcher, and added him to their already superb rotation, without giving up a major cog. As of writing (7 July, 2008), the 1998 June first-rounder is 4-8, with a 4.34 ERA, 87 K, 28 BB, and a 1.35 WHIP in 91.1 IP. Not his best start, but the 6′ 7″ giant will surely play better in the senior circuit. Traditionally, pitchers switching leagues end up with better stats when they jump to the NL. This is due, in part, to having the pitcher fend for himself at the plate (which is a whole other issue unto itself).

The following graphic is taken from a January 2007 NY Times article, regarding the same topic:

A nice graphic from NY Times depicting a pitcher's ERA+ when switching leagues.
A nice graphic from NY Times depicting a pitcher’s ERA and ERA+ when switching leagues.

Also from the same article: “A statistic called E.R.A.+, presented on the Web site baseball-reference.com, adjusts for (league, home ballpark dimensions and other factors) and presents a pitcher’s percentage, either above or below a league’s average. For example, Zito’s 3.83 E.R.A. (in the 2006 season) in Oakland — a good pitchers’ environment — translates to a figure of 116, or 16 percent better than the A.L. average.(…)

Of the 29 pitchers moving to the N.L. from the A.L., their E.R.A.+ figures increased to 110 (10 percent above league average) from 97 (just below average). This smaller shift than in E.R.A. is nonetheless more significant: It indicates that starters of equal caliber are more successful in the less suffocating National League.(…)

Pitchers found moving to the A.L. from the N.L. correspondingly unpleasant — the E.R.A.+ scores of the 28 pitchers decreased to 100 from 113, or to absolute average from healthily above. (The fact that the two groups moved 13 percentage points in opposite directions was purely coincidental.) A fair interpretation, then, is that moving to the A.L. is such a challenge that pitchers, at least temporarily, regress. Take the case of Boston’s Josh Beckett, whose 5.01 E.R.A. rose faster than the homers he allowed.

This proves that Sabathia (already incredibly successful (he won the Cy Young last season, after all)) will only increase his excellent numbers.

___________________________________________________________________

PART II- What does this mean for the Phillies?

The Phightin’s only play the Brewers in one more series this year (Sept. 11-14, in Philadelphia), but that does not mean that they will go unaffected. This will most assuredly affect them in the standings. If, somehow, the Phillies don’t win the division (see ’07 Mets, and the ’64 phold), they can still fight for the wild card. With the Cubs sitting comfortably in first in the Central for the moment, the Wild Card may come down to Milwaukee, Philadelphia, St. Louis, and New York. With their current rotation (as mentioned earlier), Milwaukee has the tiebreaker here. I believe (along with several members on the internet, I’m sure) that, to stay afloat in the volatile NL, that the Phillies need a starting pitcher. And by this, I don’t mean a solid #3 or #4 starter like Kyle Lohse last year. I mean a decent #2 pitcher, or perhaps even an ace (providing the team can afford it).

Over on MLBTradeRumors.com, Bronson Arroyo, Joe Blanton, A.J. Burnett, Brad Penny, Greg Maddux, Randy Wolf, Rich Harden, among others, are listed as potentially available, with Wolf especially linked to the Phillies. Perhaps, if the Phils are willing to part with several prospects, we could see some of these pitchers in red pinstripes?

==UPDATE== (July 8th, 8:15 pm) The Cubs just traded for A’s starters Rich Harden and Chad Gaudin.  The Phillies definitely need to make a move like this NOW.

——-

Trivia section:

C.C. Sabathia is the reigning AL Cy Young winner. When was the last time a pitcher of this quality (MVP/Cy Young, All Star, and/or Rookie of the Year nomination) was traded away during the season (as always, include the name)?

Advertisements

J.A. Happ to Start Tomorrow July 3, 2008

Posted by Sean in Phillies.tk Archives.
Tags: , , , ,
add a comment
J.A. Happ pitching at AA Reading, 2006.  Taken by the author.

J.A. Happ pitching at AA Reading, 2006. Taken by the author.

Comcast SportsNet has announced that the AAA southpaw has been recalled and will be given the ball tomorrow night against the evil Mets. This will be J.A.’s (pronounced “Jay”) second start in the majors. He pitched one game last year going 4 innings, allowing 3 earned runs and struck out 5 batters before being sent back down to AAA Ottawa following the game.

Happ, a third round selection in the ’04 draft, has slowly pitched his way up the organizational ladder, starting with then Rookie affiliate Batavia Muckdogs. Perhaps his best season came in 2005, when he pitched for both Low-A Lakewood BlueClaws and AA Reading Phillies (for only one start). He had a record of 5-4 (getting the win in Reading), a combined ERA of 2.30, combined WHIP of 1.13, 78 strikeouts (eight coming from Reading), and only 28 walks in 78.1 innings.

Happ has been a constant success for the Iron Pigs this season, where success is often hard to find. He owns a record of 5 wins and 6 losses, an ERA of 3.54, 1.27 WHIP, 104 strikeouts (one more than Mets’ starter Johan Santana, by the way), and 38 walks, all in 101.2 innings. He has easily been the ace of the staff. He is the team leader in K’s, second in wins (one behind leader Brian Mazone), sixth in ERA (well behind team leader Stephen Randolph) and WHIP (only .1 points away from Mazone), but is also tied for staff-lead in walks surrendered with Travis Blackley.

TRIVIA SECTION
This is a new thing I’ve decided to do. I’m going to ask a trivia question on every post (hopefully–you guys know how I am with fulfilling promises). The winner will be the first person the correct answer in the comment section.

How many (and name them) current Phillies played for the previous three AAA franchises (Lehigh Valley, Ottawa, and S/WB) at some point in their career (not necessarily with the Phillies)?

BA’s Major League Preview Issue Out March 26, 2008

Posted by Sean in Phillies.tk Archives, Sports (and other things relating to sports).
Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
add a comment

The issue has the Phillies ranked second in the division behind the NY Mets, and losing in the first round of the playoffs to the Chicago Cubs as the Wild Card. A few things it has under the team’s listing is Quick Take (which is an overview of the club in the upcoming year), a person in the spotlight, the team’s best player 25 years old and under, top “not quite prospect (” [A] player [who] exceeds his rookie eligibility, but [not yet] a dependable major leaguer.”), top rookie, and the team’s best prospect.

Straight out of the magazine, copied word for word:

Quick Take: The Phillies will score enough runs, and if they can prevent enough, they should win the wild card.

In The Spotlight: RHP Brett Myers. After winning in double digits for four straight year[s], he became a closer last year. Now he’s the No. 2 starter again. (Ed.’s
note: This issue went into print before Manuel named Myers the club’s Opening Day starter, and
thus, #1 pitcher
).

Top 25-And-Under Player: LHP Cole Hamels (ranked No. 14 overall).

Top Not-Quite Prospect: RHP Kyle Kendrick (unranked)
Top Rookie: LHP Josh Outman (unranked)

Top Prospect: RHP Carlos Carrasco (No. 54 overall).

————————————————-

Other Predictions

American League

ALDS
Red Sox (East winner) over Indians (Wild Card), and the Tigers (Central winners) over the Angels (West winners).

ALCS
Tigers over Red Sox.

MVP Voting
1- Miguel Cabrera, 3b, DET
2- ARod, 3b, NYY
3- Grady Sizemore, OF, CLE

Cy Young Voting
1- Josh Beckett, BOS
2- Justin Verlander, DET
3- Erik Bedard, SEA

ROY Voting

1- Evan Longoria, 3b, TB (Ed.’s Note: Longoria was optioned down to AAA Durham this week, though it is likely he will be back up later this year).
2- Clay Buchholz, P, BOS
3- Joba Chamberlain, P, NYY

—————————————————————–

National League

NLDS
Cubs (Central winners) over Phillies (Wild Card winners), and the Mets (East winners) over the Diamondbacks (West winners).

NLCS
Mets over Cubs.

MVP Voting
1-D avid Wright, 3b, NYM
2- Prince Fielder, 1b, MIL
3- Mark Teixeira, 1b, ATL

Cy Young Voting
1- Johan, NYM
2- Brandon Webb, ARZ
3- Jake Peavy, SD

ROY Voting
1- Kosuke Fukudome, of, CHC
2- Jay Bruce, of, CIN (Ed.’s Note: Bruce was also optioned down to AAA, but he will be back later. My guarantee).
3- Geovany Soto, c, CHC
———————————-

World Series

Tigers (AL) over Mets (NL).

Next Time:  I will put out my predictions, and compare them to BA.

It’s Fantasy Baseball Time! March 18, 2008

Posted by Sean in Phillies.tk Archives, Sports (and other things relating to sports).
Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
add a comment

Oh, yes readers, it’s the greatest time of year! Last night, I had the first of four fantasy drafts, with the other three on the way. There are 12 people in this league, and a 23-man roster, consisting of 1 catcher, first baseman, second baseman, third baseman, and shortstop, 3 outfielders, 1 utility position, 3 starting pitchers, 3 relievers, 2 regular pitchers, and 6 bench spots. I have named my team after the greatest sports website in the history of man, Phillies.tk. The draft took a little over 2 hours, and here is what my team looks like, with draft round in parentheses:

C Joe Mauer, MIN (5)

1b Paul Konerko, CWS (8 )

2b Brian Roberts, BAL (3)

3b Kevin Youkilis, BOS (13)

SS Michael Young, TX (7)

of Carl Crawford, TB (2)

of Kosuke Fukudome, CHC (11)

of Willy Taveras, COL (16)

u Jim Thome, CWS (9)

—–

sp Johan Santana, NYM (1)
sp Dan Haren, ARZ (6)

sp Fausto Carmona, CLE (10)

rp JJ Putz, SEA (4)

rp Manny Corpas, COL (12)

rp Troy Percival, TB (15)

p Matt Garza, TB (17)

p Brandon Lyon, ARZ (22)
—–

bench Stephen Drew, ARZ (SS) (19)

bench Colby Rasmus, STL (OF) (20)

bench Casey Kotchman, LAA (1b) (21)

bench Chien-Ming Wang, NYY (p) (14)

bench Andy Pettitte, NYY (p) (18 )

bench Gavin Floyd, CWS (p) (23, final).

——-

After Thoughts

I’m ashamed in myself that I drafted more Devil Rays and Mets than Phillies. I also went for pitching early, as evidenced with JJ Putz in the fourth round. Late in the draft, I was looking for several of my sleeper picks, of which I got most of. Rasmus, Lyon, and Floyd were all in my top five sleeper category, and I am excited that I got those three. Rasmus is trying to make the jump from AA to starting CF for the Cardinals, Lyon was given the nod as Dacks closer (no one else in the league seemed to notice that), and Floyd was awarded the fifth spot in the White Sox rotation just hours before my draft had started. The first objective on my list is to get a Phillie on to my team.

Curt Schilling Trade Lines March 7, 2008

Posted by Sean in Phillies.tk Archives, Sports (and other things relating to sports).
Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
2 comments

My PS2 broke (NOOO), so I decided to write. This is another idea I’ve had. I’m going to trace the franchise’s best players, and see what we ended up with. Batting leadoff, is former pitcher Curt Schilling (see his website here, also on WordPress).

Schilling was with the Phillies from 1992 through 2000. We sent him to the Arizona Diamondbacks for 1B Travis Lee, pitchers Omar Daal, Vicente Padilla, and Nelson Figueroa. Travis Lee was only with the team for three seasons, as the unpopular First Baseman left after ’02 as a free agent to the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. So, we got nothing for him. But that’s ok, he was a nobody anyway.

Daal was with the team until November of 2001, when we traded him to the LA Dodgers for minor league pitchers Eric Junge (pronounced like “Young”. It’s German, or something…) and Jesus Cordero. Cordero amounted to nothing, but Junge proved to be a useful commodity. From 2002 through 2004, he was one of the best pitchers on the S/WB Red Barons staff. In 02 and ’03, he got tastes of the majors, but did not do as well as he did in the minor leagues. I guess you could classify him as a AAAA player. He left after 2004 to the Mets as a free agent.

Jumping back to Schilling, Padilla was the best thing we got out of this trade. He didn’t stick with the Phillies until the 2002 season, when he became the number two starter on the team behind Robert Person. He left the team after 2005, when he was sent to the Rangers for Ricardo Rodriguez, who didn’t make it out of Spring Training that year.

The last player in the deal, Nelson Figueroa, was in the minor leagues for most of 2002 (and all of his Philly stint that year), and pitched only 81 innings for the Phils the next year, before being claimed off waivers by the Milwaukee Brewers. He never factored into the team’s plans.

_____________________

Where Are They Now?

Schilling, as everyone knows, went on to win the World Series in 2001 with Arizona, and then two more with Boston in 2004 and last year (2007). Though he spent his prime here with us, he still had plenty more productive years. Currently with the Boston Red Sox.

Lee spent one year with the Rays in 2003, before leaving as a free agent to the dark side. He signed with the Yankees, but did not see much action. He then returned to the Rays in ’05 for two years, but was long past his glory days by then. He signed with the Nationals in Spring Training of 2007, but asked to be released. Currently retired.

Daal, after his Philly tenure, was traded to the Dodgers, and then wound up pitching for the Orioles in 2003. After undergoing shoulder surgery in 2004, he called it quits. Interestingly, his current whereabouts are unknown, and is considered missing.

Junge has bounced around since he left, including the Mets, Padres, and Yankees. This offseason, he signed with the Orix Buffaloes in Japan.

After being released in 2002, Cordero never saw the light of organized ball again.

Padilla was traded after ’06 to the Rangers, where he currently is. He quickly ascended the rotation ranks and is now the team’s ace.

Figueroa bounced around even more than Junge did. He’s been with Milwaukee, Washington, Pittsburgh, and even spent two games with the Long Island Ducks of the Atlantic League. Currently with the Mets.

Number 57 to the Mets January 29, 2008

Posted by Sean in Phillies.tk Archives.
Tags: , ,
add a comment

F*CK. As reported by MLB.com, the Twins ace was traded to the Mutts for four prospects: Phil Humber, Carlos Gomez, Deolis Guerra, and Kevin Mulvey. Humber, a pitcher, is ranked as the number 7 prospect for the Mets, and has a chance to make the Twins rotation out of Spring Training. Gomez, the number three prospect, is expected to take over in center for the departed Torii Hunter. Guerra is a pitcher and ranked number 2, only behind Binghamton left fielder Fernando Martinez. He spent the year at high A St. Lucie, and won’t debut for a while. The last player, Kevin Mulvey, is also a pitcher, and ranked fourth. He was at AA and AAA in 2007, but he most likely won’t make the Twins until at least July.

There are only two good points to this transaction: Now the NL All-Stars stand a slight chance, and the Mets mortgaged their future for a pitcher who will garner a $billion contract for life. Let’s hope he only stays for ’08 than bolts back to the AL!

%d bloggers like this: